Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware D.C. Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming Alabama | 9 Electoral Votes | Strongly McCain Facts: Alabama has only voted for 2 democrats since 1960, native sons George Wallace in 1968 and Jimmy Carter in 1976. This state will almost certainly vote for John McCain in the 2008. Alaska | 3 Electoral Votes | Strongly McCain Alaska became a state in 1959 and has only voted in a total of 12 presidential elections. 11 of the 12 elections went for the republican candidate. Alaska has not voted for a Democrat since Lindon B. Johnson in 1964. This state will certainly go to John McCain in 2008. Arizona | 10 Electoral Votes | Strongly McCain With the exception of 1996 when it voted for Bill Clinton, Arizona has voted for the Republican candidate in each presidential election since 1952. Arizona is John McCain's home state, and it is certain Arizona will go to John McCain in 2008. Arkansas | 6 Electoral Votes | Strongly McCain Arkansas has mixed presidential election results. Since 1972, it has voted for the republican candidate 6 times, and the democratic candidate 3 times. 2 of the 3 times Arkansas voted for the democrat candidate it was for Bill Clinton (1992 & 1996). Bill clinton was from Arkansas and served as its Governor. Arkansas is not really considered a swing state and will probably go to John McCain in 2008. California | 55 Electoral Votes | Moderately Obama California has gone through cycles of voting for the republican and democratic candidate. Since Bill Clinton was elected in 1992, the state has been a democrat stronghold. It was strongly republican from 1952 to 1988 (with the exception of 1962). More recently, it has possibly swayed to the democrat candidate due to the increasing Hispanic population which tends to favor the lenient policy positions democrats hold towards illegal immigrants. Because John McCain's immigration policies tend to more in line with the democrats than republicans, California will be an interesting state to watch in the 2008 election. Colorado | 9 Electoral Votes | Moderately McCain With the exception of 1962 and 1992, Colorado has voted for the republican candidate in every presidential election since 1952 (12 out of 14 times). While polling prior to the end of the nomination process for the democrats showed Colorado might be a battleground state, reliable data is not yet available to demonstrate this. No polling data available Connecticut | 7 Electoral Votes | Moderately Obama Connecticut is another state that goes through cycles of voting back and forth for the republican and democrat candidates. In the last 4 presidential elections, Connecticut has gone to the democrat candidate, and then to the republican candidate the 5 elections prior to that. Delaware | 3 Electoral Votes | Moderately Obama Like Connecticut, Delaware has a mixed history when it comes to voting in presidential elections. It has voted for the democrat candidate since Bill Clinton in 1992, but voted for the republican candidate 5 out of the 6 election cycles prior to 1992. No reliable polling data available. Washington D.C. | 3 Electoral Votes | Strongly Obama The District of Columbia is the only non-state to gain electoral votes through the ratification of the 23rd Amendment in 1961. The 23rd Amendment gave D.C. a share of electors proportional to its population (like the states), but limited it to no more electors than the least populous state. The District of Columbia's 3 electoral votes will almost certainly go to Barack Obama in 2008. No polling data available. Florida | 27 Electoral Votes | Barely McCain Florida is a battleground state that leans republican. This state has grown significantly since World War II, moving from only 8 electoral votes to the 27 that it currently holds. Demographic changes in US population suggest that Florida will pick up even more electoral votes in 2012 after the 2010 national census. Georgia | 15 Electoral Votes | Strongly McCain Georgia voted for Independent George Wallace in 1968, the last time a third-party candidate received any electoral votes. Georgia has been reliably Republican since, except when a southern Democrat was on the ticket. Georgia voted for native Jimmy Carter in 1976 and 1980, as well as Bill Clinton in 1992. In 2004, George Bush handily defeated John Kerry by 58% to 41%. This state will likely go to John McCain in 2008. Hawaii | 4 Electoral Votes | Strongly Obama Hawaii became the 50th state when it joined the Union in August of 1959. The state had 3 electoral votes in the 1960 election, and has since held 4 electoral votes. Hawaii has voted for the democrat candidate in every election since joining the union with the exception of 1972 (Nixon) and 1984 (Reagan), both of which were landslide elections. This state will almost certainly go to Obama in 2008. No polling data available. Idaho | 4 Electoral Votes | Strongly McCain Idaho has only voted for a democrat candidate 1 time in the last 56 years when Lyndon Johnson beat Barry Goldwater in the 1964 landslide election. This is one of the most red states in the Union and will certainly go to John McCain in 2008. No polling data available. Illinois | 21 Electoral Votes | Strongly Obama Illinois has trended democrat in the last 4 presidential elections. Due to this trend, and the fact that the state is home to Senator Barack Obama, it is likely to go to Obama in the 2008 election. Illinois currently has 21 electoral votes, down from the 29 it had in the 1930s, and is likely to lose more in upcoming election cycles based on current demographic changes in the national population. No polling data available. Indiana | 11 Electoral Votes | Strongly McCain Indiana has been primarily Republican throughout its history. Since 1940, Indiana has only voted for a democrat presidential candidate one time in 1964, when Lyndon Johnson won a landslide over Barry Goldwater. This state will definately go to John McCain in 2008. Iowa | 7 Electoral Votes | Barely Obama Iowa is currently a battleground state. George Bush defeated John Kerry by only 0.8%, or about 10,000 votes. Only Wisconsin had a closer tally, based on percentage. 2004 Marked the first time the state voted for a republican presidential candidate since the Reagan landslide victory in 1984. It is yet to be seen if 2004 marks a break in the trend of voting for democrats over the past twenty years. Kansas | 6 Electoral Votes | Strongly McCain Kansas usually votes for the Republican candidate in presidential elections, and has not voted for a Democrat since 1964, when Lyndon Johnson achieved a landslide victory. In 2004, George Bush won the state 62% to 37% over John Kerry. Down from its peak of 10 electoral votes a century ago, Kansas currently has 6 electoral votes. Kentucky | 8 Electoral Votes | Strongly McCain Kentucky was the 2nd state to join the Union after the original 13 colonies, and stayed a part of the Union during the Civil war. Kentucky tends to vote Democratic when a southern governor has been on the ticket. Kentucky voted for Jimmy Carter in 1976 and for Bill Clinton in both 1992 and 1996. In 2004, George W. Bush defeated John Kerry 60% to 40%. Louisiana | 9 Electoral Votes | Moderately McCain From 1948 to 1968, the Louisiana voted twice for Democrats, twice for Republicans, and twice for third-party candidates. More recently, the state has also favored southern Democratic governors, voting for Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Bill Clinton in both 1992 and 1996. Based on the 2010 US Census, Louisiana could lose an electoral vote do to the emigration away from the state in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. No polling data available. Maine | 4 Electoral Votes | Strongly Obama Maine and Nebraska are the only two states to not award electoral votes based on the "all-or-nothing" method. The winner of the popular vote gets two electoral votes, while one is assigned to the winner of each of Maine's two congressional districts. Maine is likely to go to Obama in 2008. Maryland | 10 Electoral Votes | Strongly Obama Since 1960, Maryland has only voted for a Republican candidate in the landslide wins of Richard Nixon in 1972, Ronald Reagan in 1984, and George H.W. Bush in 1988. In 2004, John Kerry defeated George W. Bush 56% to 43%. It is likely Obama will carry Maryland in 2008. No polling data available. Massachusetts | 12 Electoral Votes | Strongly Obama Massachusetts was the only state to vote for George McGovern in his huge 1972 electoral loss to Richard Nixon. Massachusetts has slowly lost its electoral weight over the course of the 20th century, losing 1/3 of its electoral votes since the 1920s, reducing the number from 18 to 12. That number may drop to 11 in 2012, depending on the outcome of the 2010 census. In 2004, home-state Senator John Kerry beat George Bush 62% to 37%, the widest margin of victory for Kerry in any of the 50 states. The state will likely go to Obama in 2008. Michigan | 17 Electoral Votes | Barely McCain Due to a lower population growth in comparison to the rest of the country, Michigan has experienced a loss of electoral votes, from 21 in the 1970s to the 17 votes it has today. Michigan could lose one or more electoral votes before the 2012 election, based on the 2010 census. Michigan has changed back and forth between Republican and Democrat hands over the last few decades. In 2004, John Kerry defeated George W. Bush by a slender 51% to 48% margin. Michigan will no doubt be one of the most hotly contested races in the 2008 Presidential elections. Minnesota | 10 Electoral Votes | Barely Obama Since 1932 Minnesota has primarily voted Democratic, last voting Republican during Nixon's landslide victory in 1972. In 1984, Minnesota gave native Senator Mondale his only state in the lopsided loss to Ronald Reagan. Despite this history of being blue state, the 2000 election turned out quite close, with Al Gore defeating bush by only 2.5%. In 2004, John Kerry defeated George Bush by only 3.5%. Minnesota may be a battleground state with moderate Republican John McCain on the ticket. Mississippi | 6 Electoral Votes | Moderately McCain Three times since World War II, Mississippi has voted all its electors for third-party candidates, more than any other state. Since 1968, the state has voted Republican, except for 1976 when it electoral votes went to Jimmy Carter. In 2004, George W. Bush easily won the state by 59% to John Kerry's 40%. Mississippi will probably go to John McCain in 2008. Missouri | 11 Electoral Votes | Barely McCain Population growth has been slower in Missouri compared to the rest of the nation, causing a decline in allotted electoral votes from the 18 it had prior to the Great Depression, to the 11 it has today. Depending on the outcome of the 2010 US Census, Missouri could lose another electoral vote for the 2012 election. Missouri is likely to be one of the most contested races in the 2008 presidential election. Current polling data is really too close to determine who is ahead, so the national electoral alltment at the top of the page gives Missouri to John McCain only because the state went to George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004. More polling data, especially after each nominee chooses a running mate, will be needed to make more accurate predictions. Montana | 3 Electoral Votes | Strongly McCain Montana has voted for only two Democrats since 1952. Montana is one of seven states with the minimum three electoral votes. In 2004, George W. Bush easily defeated John Kerry by 59% to 39% margin, and the state will almost certainly go to John McCain in 2008. No recent polling data available. Nebraska | 5 Electoral Votes | Strongly McCain Nebraska's population has not grown as quickly as other parts of the nation, leading to a declining number of electoral votes, from a peak of 8 prior to the Great Depression, to its current total of 5. Nebraska and Maine are the only two states to not use the "all-or-nothing" method to awarding electoral votes. The winner of the popular vote gets two electoral votes, while one is assigned to the winner of each of the state's three congressional districts. Nevada | 5 Electoral Votes | Moderately McCain Nevada had only 3 electoral votes through 1980. The population of the state has more than tripled since 1980, bringing its number of electoral votes to 5. Depending on the results of the 2010 US Census, it may gain another electoral vote for the 2012 Presidential election. Nevada voted for George W. Bush over John Kerry by a margin of 51% to 48%. Nevada is may be a battleground state in the 2008 election. New Hampshire | 4 Electoral Votes | Barely Obama In 2004, John Kerry won by just 1.4% over George W. Bush. New Hampshire was also the only state to vote Democratic in 2004 that had voted Republican in 2000. New Hampshire has maintained its allocation of four electoral votes since 1884, and is likely to be a battleground state in the 2008 presidential election. New Jersey | 15 Electoral Votes | Moderately Obama New Jersey has voted for the Democrat candidate in the last four elections, after voting Republican in eight out of the prior 10. John Kerry won the state by a margin of 53% to 46% in 2004 against George W. Bush. New Mexico | 5 Electoral Votes | Barely Obama George W. Bush defeated John Kerry by 0.8% in 2004. Whichever party New Mexico has voted for, the state has been good at siding with the winning candidate, only getting it wrong in 1976 (Gerald Ford) and 2000 (George W. Bush) since it was able to vote in presidential elections in 1912. New Mexico is likely to be a battleground state in the 2008 presidential election. New York | 31 Electoral Votes | Strongly Obama In the 1810 census, New York became the nation's most populous state, and had the most electoral votes from 1812 election until 1972, when it was surpassed by California. Texas overtook New York in electoral votes in 2004, and the state has continued to lose at least two electoral votes in each of the last six censuses. This trend may continue depending on the outcome of the 2010 US Census. North Carolina | 15 Electoral Votes | Moderately McCain In 2004, George W. Bush defeated John Kerry by a 56 to 44% margin in the Tarheel State. The state is likely to go to John McCain in the 2008 Presidential election. North Dakota | 3 Electoral Votes | Strongly McCain North Dakota's population of about 650,000 is little changed from what it was in 1920. As a result, North Dakota is one of seven states with the minimum three electoral votes. In 2004, George Bush defeated John Kerry 63% to 35%. It is likely John McCain will pick up the 3 electoral votes the state has to offer, as North Dakota has only voted for a Democrat presidential candidate one time since 1936. No reliable polling data available. Ohio | 20 Electoral Votes | Battleground State Ohio put George W. Bush over the top in the 2000 presidential election, barely defeating John Kerry by 2% of the vote. Ohio has proved itself to be a remarkably good predictor of the election winner in the last half century. Since 1944, Ohio has selected the winning candidate in every election except 1960, when it opted for Nixon over Kennedy. Relative to the rest of the nation, Ohio has been losing population which might cost it one or two electoral votes after the 2010 US Census. Oklahoma | 7 Electoral Votes | Strongly McCain In Oklahoma, George W. Bush defeated John Kerry in 2004 66% to 34%, the largest margin of victory for either candidate in a state where more than one million votes were cast. It is likely these 7 electoral votes will go to John McCain in 2008. No updated polling data available. Oregon | 7 Electoral Votes | Moderately Obama Oregon's population has steadily grown over the years, allowing it to sometimes gain electoral votes. The last time it gained such a vote was in 1984 when it went from 6 to 7 after the 1980 US Census. It seems likely Oregon will go to Barack Obama in 2008. Pennsylvania | 21 Electoral Votes | Barely Obama Although it has voted for the Democrat Presidential candidate in the last four elections, In 2004 John Kerry won over George W. Bush by only 2.5%. Pennsylvania peaked at 38 electoral votes in the 1910s and 1920s, and has since lost 45 percent of its electoral votes in the last 80 years. Pennsylvania may be considered a battleground state in the 2008 presidential election. Rhode Island | 4 Electoral Votes | Strongly Obama John Kerry defeated George W. Bush by almost 21% in 2004, the second largest margin of any state. It is likely these 4 electoral votes will go to Barack Obama in 2008. No updated polling data available. South Carolina | 8 Electoral Votes | Strongly McCain George W. Bush handily defeated John Kerry 58% to 41% in 2004 and will likely go to John McCain in the 2008 Presidential election. South Dakota | 3 Electoral Votes | Strongly McCain George W. Bush defeated John Kerry there by a margin of 60% to 38% in 2004, and the state will almost certainly go to John McCain in the 2008 Presidential election. Tennessee | 11 Electoral Votes | Moderately McCain Tennessee is fairly reliable for the Republicans during Presidential elections, having voted for the Republican candidate all but 4 times since 1952. Most recently, Bill Clinton won the state in both 1992 and 1996, though it was the home state of his running mate, Vice President Al Gore. Interestingly, Al Gore lost the state in 2000 when he headed the Democratic ticket. In 2004, George W. Bush defeated John Kerry 57% to 43%. Texas | 34 Electoral Votes | Strongly McCain George W. Bush won Texas over John Kerry 61% to 38%. The population of Texas has grown rapidly over the last century, and its 34 electoral votes are second only to California's 55 electoral votes. The state might gain as much as 3 additional electoral votes before the 2012 presidential election depending on the results of the 2010 US Census. Utah | 5 Electoral Votes | Strongly McCain Utah's population has been growing in recent decades and it is likely to gain an electoral vote in 2012, depending on the results of the 2010 US Census. The state is very Republican, and will almost certainly go to John McCain in 2008. Vermont | 3 Electoral Votes | Strongly Obama Vermont was the first state admitted to the union after the original 13 colonies. From the election of 1854 [when the modern Republican party was formed] through the election of 1988, Vermont went Republican in every election except 1964. Vermont broke this trend in 1992 when the state voted for Bill Clinton over George Bush. In 2004, John Kerry beat George W. Bush 59% to 39%. No recent polling data available. Virginia | 13 Electoral Votes | Moderately McCain Virginia has been strongly republican in presidential elections in recent decades, voting for George W. Bush over John Kerry by a margin of 54% to 46% in 2004. While recent polling shows the state might be competitive, more reliable polling with larger sample sizes that include running mates closer to the election will be an important indicator where this state might go in 2008. Until more reliable polling data is available, we will leave the state in the "Moderately McCain" category. Washington | 11 Electoral Votes | Strongly Obama Washington State has been a reliable states for Democrat candidates in recent years, and it is likely it will go to Barack Obama in 2008. John Kerry defeated George W. Bush 53% to 46% in 2004. West Virginia | 5 Electoral Votes | Moderately McCain George Bush defeated Al Gore in both 2000, and John Kerry by in 2004 56% to 43%. It should be noted that the state primarily votes for Democrat candidates at the local and state levels. It has been speculated that West Virginia could be a battleground state in 2008, but recent polling does not particulary support this. Polls with larger sample sizes that come out after the candidates have chosen running mates will be a better indicator which direction this state might go in 2008. Wisconsin | 10 Electoral Votes | Barely Obama Although the state went to the Democrat candidate in the 2000 and 2004 presidential races, the tallies were extremely close. In 2004, the Wisconsin race was the closest in the nation, with John Kerry defeating George W. Bush by only 0.4%. It is expected Wisconsin will again be a battleground state in 2008. Wyoming | 3 Electoral Votes | Strongly McCain Wyoming is currently a Republican stronghold in presidential elections, having voted Democratic just once since 1952. In 2004, George W. Bush beat John Kerry by a margin of 40%. It is a virtual certainty that this state will go to John McCain in 2008. No polling data available.